From: "peter.thorne" To: Phil Jones Subject: Re: CRUTEM4 Date: Tue, 12 May 2009 09:53:11 +0100 Phil, I can't believe that people think it remotely reasonable behaviour to send that sort of crud. They'd never say that to your face. I guess their home is just that much more cosy and impersonal. Cash would need spending in FY09/10 as I understand it, but someone for six months (assuming they could start this Sept.) could be a route forwards. It would be a good paper for them career-wise. HadSST3 is in first draft form. I'm not sure what papers you assume will arise. I think we were thinking of developing HadSST3 and CRUTEM4 seperately (but in a joined up way) and publishing as separate papers and then doing a paper that covers combination to HadCRUT4 and perhaps, for example, a d&a sensitivity to error model assumptions. Peter On Tue, 2009-05-12 at 09:43 +0100, Phil Jones wrote: > Peter, > Below is one of three emails I got last night following a new thread on CA. > I'll ignore them and wait for the FOI requests, which we have dealt > with before. > I did send an email to Thomas Stocker alerting him up to comment #17. > These are all about who changed what in various chapters of AR4. I > expect these > to get worse with AR5. > > Anyway back to the matter in hand. > > I'm planning to come down to see Ian Simpson (probably on June > 1). I'll get back > to David on this later today. > We've done some of what you aim for. We've sorted out the new Canadian > WMO numbers and have extra data for Australia and NZ in. Australia comes in > by email once a month. I'll have to find a new contact in NZ now > Jim Salinger has > been sacked - but it's only a small country. Iran is pretty good. > The US is the large bit of work. The US already has better > station density than > almost anywhere else, so the effort won't make much difference. But > it is probably > worth doing, as it would reduce errors - even if no-one understands > them. Glad > you got the poor paper to review! > Soon we will be adding data for the Greater Alpine Region (32 sites) which > go back to 1760. These data all have adjustments for screen issues prior to > about 1880. This makes summers cooler by about 0.4 deg C and winters about > the same. Similarly, we will also add a load of stations for Spain > (again with Screen > biases in). There is probably more we could add for European countries, > but again it is likely to make little difference, except to lower errors. > The real issue is South America and Africa. We have the whole > Argentine network, > but this is only digitized back to 1959 and the data we had wasn't > that bad anyway. > Problem in South America is Brazil. Africa is OK in a few > countries, but poor in many. > We could add loads in China. > Issue with all this is that most of the additions wouldn't be > available from whenever > we stop. We can probably do the US in real time like Australia. > We've also been trying to add in the precip for many of these > extra stations (not > the Alpine countries and Spain). > There is a timing issue. As I understand HadSST3 won't be > available to be merged > with until it is successfully reviewed. So need to consider this as well. > > A final issue is people here. We're OK for most of 2010 for all. > We have a good > student finishing a PhD by Sept who wants to stay, so couldn't > really do anything > till then. > > Cheers > Phil > > > Dear Mr Jones > > As a UK tax payer from the productive economy, could you please > explain why you restrict access to data sets that are gathered using > tax payer funds e.g. CRUTEM3. Can you believe how embarassing this is > to a UK TAX PAYER, putting up with your amateurish non disclosure of > enviromental information. > > For reference http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=5962 refers to your > absymal attitude to public data, although this is just the latest in > an embarassing set of reasonable requests from CRU, who the hell do > you think you are? There will of course be an FOI on the back of this > > Regards > Ian > > > At 08:54 12/05/2009, peter.thorne wrote: > >Phil, > > > >there may be some money this FY, substantial sums. Management here are > >casting around for ideas. As its to be spent this FY its largely going > >to be consultant work as we never have a cats chance in hell of > >recruiting on that timescale. What resource do you think we could > >contract from CRU (you, Harry, others?) for doing a CRUTEM4 which I > >would maintain had two aims ... > > > >1. Rescue and incorporation of recent data (I'm pinging NCDC too to see > >what they could do vis-a-vis collating and sending the non-wmo US > >stations and other data you may not have ... their bi-lats may have sig. > >extra stations for Iran, Aus, Canada etc.) > > > >2. A more robust error model that led to production of a set of equi- > >probable potential gridded products (HadSST3 will do simnilarly so we > >could combine to form HadCRUT4 equi-probable). This error model > >determination would ideally be modular so that we could assess how wrong > >our assumptions about the error would have to be to "matter" and what > >error sources are important for our ability to characterise the long- > >term trend (trivially these will be the red noise I know but then most > >people seem blind to the trivial sadly ...). The HadCRUT3 paper clearly > >started well down that path but a recent paper I had the displeasure of > >reviewing on my way back from WMO shows its poorly understood > >(deliberately so in this particular case ...). > > > >We have a meeting Thursday. If it passes muster there we'll put it to > >DECC and see what happens. No promises. > > > >This would mean we'd have HadCRUT4 which would be HadSST3 + CRUTEM4 each > >with more data and better error models well before AR5 which seems > >sensible ... > > > >Mr. Fraudit never goes away does he? How often has he been told that we > >don't have permission? Ho hum. Oh, I heard that fraudit's Santer et al > >comment got rejected. That'll brighten your day at least a teensy bit? > > > >Peter > >-- > >Peter Thorne Climate Research Scientist > >Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB > >tel. +44 1392 886552 fax +44 1392 885681 > >www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs > > Prof. Phil Jones > Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 > School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 > University of East Anglia > Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk > NR4 7TJ > UK > ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- > -- Peter Thorne Climate Research Scientist Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB tel. +44 1392 886552 fax +44 1392 885681 www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs